Today’s children could live 130 years
Statisticians estimate that a child already born could live beyond 130 years.
The number of people who live beyond the age of 100 has been increasing for decades, to nearly half a million people worldwide, due to advances in medical and scientific technology, as well as growing world population.
However, there are far fewer “supercentenarians”, who live to be 110 years old and the oldest person of all time, Jeanne Calment from France, was 122 when she died in 1997, four years older. than current record holder Kane Tanaka, 118 years old. from Japan.
Extreme longevity will slowly increase by the turn of the century, according to researchers at the University of Washington, which means they believe Calmet’s record is certain to be broken.
“People are fascinated by the extremes of humanity, whether it’s going to the moon, how fast someone can run in the Olympics or even how long someone can live,” he said. said lead author Michael Pearce, PhD student in statistics at UW. “With this work, we quantify the likelihood that we think an individual will reach various extreme ages during this century.”
Pearce’s team used Bayesian statistics to calculate their conclusions, finding that there is a 100% chance of having a new record holder, a 99% chance that someone will live to be 124, 68% of his life at 127 years and 13%. chance that an individual will cross the 130 barrier by 2100.
However, Adrian Rafferty, who partnered with Pearce for the study, said they believed medical advancements wouldn’t mean there would be a sudden glut of people reaching such a late age, because after 110 years , our death rate is flattening.
“No matter how old they are, once they turn 110, they always die at the same rate,” Raftery explained. “They have overcome all the things that life throws at you, like illness. They are dying for reasons somewhat unrelated to what affects young people. They are a very select group of very hardy people.”
As a result, a 110-year-old has the same probability of dying in the next year, about 50 percent, as a person five years older.
The new study, published in the journal Demographic Research, was funded by the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development.